"It's a Great Time to Rent!"

Rentals, Rentals, Everywhere and All the Rents Compete

In several of my posts on this blog, I've alluded to rents coming down in Key West.

I know this to be true as I have been watching the classified ads for the past 5 to 6 years. During the Great Housing Bubble runup from 2001 through 2005, I noticed fewer and fewer rentals on the market. Those which remained were asking higher and higher rents. A normal rent during that time was $2,000 and above.

I also never saw rentals last more than a week in the Key West Citizen classifieds. I can remember the old house we lived in on White Street where it was subdivided into apartments and rooms. Anytime anything became available, the place would rent out in 2 or 3 days.

Now there are so many rentals available in the paper that I've seen some go weeks and months before they disappear. The more expensive rentals are staying on the market longer.



Flashback to the Summer of 2004

I can remember two young workmates moving into a Oceanwalk condo back in 2004 which had 3 bedrooms. Late in their rental history, they began to rent out that 3rd bedroom to dancers who come down from Miami for a week to work our club just so they could meet their high rental payments. (With rent, electricity, cable and other utilities, they were paying over $3,000 a month)

These two young men had debts to pay off (credit cards, cars, and college) and were voracious eaters. Only one of them put away some money which saved his butt during the Summer and Fall of 2005 when 4 hurricanes hit. That was the Summer that many a non-saver finally left Key West. That was also the Summer when the Housing Bubble burst in Key West.

The rent these two guys paid Oceanwalk is more than what I pay now for an entire home . . . which is in a gated compound of three homes with a shared swimming pool. My home is also a ten minute walk to work. Hence, I don't pay $10 a night parking any longer. I also have a washer/dryer in my place. My friends in Oceanwalk used the coin laundry out there. Lastly, I am at the top of Solares Hill, a no Flood Zone. Both of my friends lost their cars to Hurricane Wilma when the storm surge swept ashore and flooded the parking lots of all those condos out on South Roosevelt.

Hence, I get more value renting this entire house for $1,900 a month than my friends got for paying over $3,000 a month.

Yes, the times, they are a changing.

With the growing glut of Housing for Sale inventory, rents are being affected in a very positive way for renters: they are coming down.

Housing inventory is even under-reported in the MLS listings, so the data we see is under-reporting the pressure on landlords to lower rents.

Meanwhile . . .

1. Inventories are rising more quickly than sales. Many South Florida counties are showing inventories hundreds of percent higher than the same time last year.
2. The great sub-Prime wipeout has forced remaining lenders to tighten standards in lending. Thus, fewer people are qualified to get any kind of loan.
3. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. Vacant homes and condos with no buyers anywhere to be seen are sitting with their lights off all over Florida. Even new home communities are seeing brand new homes vandalized as the finished homes sit empty of anyone who can afford one.
4. Many current homeowners who own a 2nd home which they bought as an "investment" are now carrying two mortgages longer than they had originally planned. Story after story in the mainstream media tells sad tales of unsavvy "flippers" who were caught with their skirts up and their pants down as the Housing Crash gains more momentum every month. Many of these Real Estate investors are now "upside down" on the loans for their investment properties, meaning they owe more on the property than it is currently appraised for as prices continue to fall.
5. Homebuilders such as Lannar are so deep underwater with lawsuits against shoddy construction and tons of empty, newly built homes sitting on the market for far too long, that they are now resorting to "auctions" for new homes. Many of these new homes sell for reductions of $100,000 or more in communities where homebuyers during the Housing Bubble are now fuming they were never offered these low prices for the exact same house. Some of these homeowners have turned in their keys to the homebuilders and have also given them notices they will sue.

With all this extra inventory coming on the market, what is the sense of a lender, homebuilder, flipper etc., paying taxes, insurance and maintenance on an empty property which doesn't make them any revenue at all?

Hence, the market is being flooded with rentals. And because so many rentals are on the market, landlords are being forced to lower rents so as to compete.

Two weeks ago, up in the Miami area, I passed by a large townhouse community off one of the busier thoroughfares in that city. Out front was a sign: "First Month's Rent Free, Small Security Deposit".

Miami Rents are Going Down, Down, Down

This same thing is happening in other areas of Miami as this new story tells us:

It's about to get a little easier for South Florida renters -- or at least a little less difficult.

While finding an apartment is still hardly stress-free, the sharp jumps in rental rates of recent years are finally starting to flatten out. There are now more vacancies. And thanks to a weak housing market, some condo and house owners who can't sell have decided to become temporary landlords instead, giving renters more choices.

What it all adds up to is a subtle but distinct change in the direction of the rental market -- one that Florida International University graduate student Heidi Williams has noticed.

Williams, 30, just started renting her 1,030-square-foot Brickell Key condo from an individual owner for $2,100 a month. That's after her agent negotiated $200 off her rent each month.

''I was actually surprised because I've never gotten that break,'' said Williams, who moved into the two-bedroom, two-bathroom place Monday. 'In my mind, they were just saying, `Let's get it
rented.' ''

Nationwide, the tilt in favor of renters is showing in apartment vacancy rates that have soared to 6.1 percent. In South Florida, vacancy rates are still much lower at about 3.9 percent. However, that's up from 3.4 percent for Miami and 2.7 percent for Fort Lauderdale a year ago.

''Renters are in a stronger position now,'' said Sam Chandan, chief economist at real estate research firm Reis Inc. ``But a vacancy rate of 3.9 percent is still a tight market.''

Rental rates are also starting to flatten out. They're still expected to rise about 4 percent this year, according to Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting LLC in Deerfield Beach. But that's significantly less than the hikes of 13 percent in 2006 and 8.4 percent in 2005.

Another sign of better times for renters is the return of incentives from landlords desperate for leases. Of 408 large market-rate apartment complexes in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach countries surveyed by McCabe's firm, about 10 percent offered concessions such as one month's rent and other incentives. That's up from virtually none in 2005 and 2006.

''They don't normally do this unless they see their occupancies drop,'' McCabe said.

These landlords are now facing competition from a new source of rentals -- condo owners. Some of these owners never planned on renting their condos out, but figure they might as well pay their mortgages through renting while waiting for the housing market to brighten.

Condo owner Emmanuel Fremin didn't intend to be a landlord. Fremin, a New York art dealer, planned to flip the 600-square-foot space he bought two years ago. Then the market slowed. Now he rents the one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit in Miami Beach for $300 a night or $2,000 a week -- and he says he's actually profiting.

''I can cover almost three times my mortgage,'' said Fremin, adding he makes more money renting than if he sold the place.

There's no way to track exactly how many condo or even house owners have become reluctant landlords. But the vacancy rate for houses and condos in South Florida went up from 2.3 percent in 2005 to 3.4 percent last year -- suggesting more places might be available to renters.

Then there are the new condos coming onto the market, also vacant. Broker Carlos Fonseca of ERA Home Sales & Rentals in Surfside is seeing 10 to 15 percent more new condos available for rent than last year, partly because more buildings opened this year.

Despite the new supply of spaces, apartment developer Jay Jacobson notes, there's still plenty of demand for rentals. The price of housing is still so high that many people have no choice but to rent.

''I don't see it being a devastating impact on the rental market,'' said Jacobson, a director at condo and apartment rental developer Wood Partners, who works in South Florida.

Delivrine Registre, 23, is finding that South Florida is still expensive, but there are more choices for renters now than when she first arrived two years ago.

After moving from Jacksonville, she looked on Craigslist and ended up renting an apartment for $950 a month plus utilities.

But when she looked online again two months ago for a new place, she noticed more rental listings than before.She decided to rent a room in a Kendall house for about $650 a month -- utilities included.

''There's a big problem in South Florida with finding affordable housing,'' said Registre, a broadcast writer. ``I'm paying a whole lot less renting a room than living on my own.''

On Key West Bars, Bikers and Cars

Come on Down, Key West is a Ghost Town after 2 AM

Bars in Key West are cutting back on personnel's hours.

Five of the biggest bars . . . world famous bars which people always visit in Key West . . . are closing earlier at night. Many of these bars are advertising for Security help, but the problem is, the bars are not saying in their ads that hours are flexible. Many of their personnel are coming up to me at my DJ booth asking if we are hiring? You see, they show up to work, business is slow, and the GM walks around and says, "You, you and you, punch out and take the rest of the night off."

The GM, instead of laying off people and giving full shifts to the few guys he or she keeps on, is instead trying to "spread the pain" which in effect is making it worse for everybody. Hence, security guys and bartenders and waitresses at these world famous bars have been flooding my bar with job applications. They know our business continues to grow and that we are the busiest bar on Duval Street after midnight.

What is eerie about all these unsolicited applicants we are officially three weeks before Hurricane Season begins, and already we have a Sub-tropical/Tropical Storm forming of the coast of the Carolinas.

During Hurricane Season, business in Key West slows down. However, if this year's "Season" is a prelude to what is about to happen during this coming summer, I predict many newer bars, stores and restaurants will be closing . . . for good.

My bar is open til 4 AM. From 1 to 4 AM our business is expanding year over year as off duty bartenders and waitresses come in to my place to sit and commiserate about declining tips. Because we've promoted "Latest open bar in Key West, Florida every night of the year. We never close early, Never!" we have become the No. 1 nightspot for "Last Call" for locals.

Other bars are closing much earlier than normal or barely staying open with a skeleton crew. In a way, Duval Street after midnight is beginning to remind me of the year I arrived in Key West: 1990. Some nights, we as a crew will take turns going out on our 2nd floor balcony porch. We look over the street. We turn our head to the right, we turn it to the left. We see very few people on the street. We see several bars already closed.

Spring Break 2007 Was the Tipping Point for Slower Business in the Bars and Restaurants

This Spring Break was the softest or slowest since I've been in this town. During the first week of Spring Break, we saw our little more than usual share of bikers who make it down from Bike Week in Daytona.

Normally, during the first week of every Spring Break, we see 30% bikers, 70% college kids.

This year, the percentages flipped.

Fewer and fewer college kids can afford Key West prices. Thus, more bikers were finding rooms this year which in past years were not available. And keep in mind that Key West has fewer rooms to rent as condo/hotel projects are taking hotel room inventory down the lowest levels I've seen in my 17 years on "The Rock".

Despite less room inventory during this past Spring Break,vacancies were available at hotels and guest houses all over Key West during March which is usually the busiest month of every year. Two famous guesthouses surround the compound where I live. The only time I saw "No Vacancy" signs during March 2007 was on the weekends.

An Observation on What is Happening with Bikers

With more bikers and fewer college students during Spring Break 2007, I had an easier time observing the packs of guys who rode into town on their Harleys to ogle the disappearing College co-eds.

My number one observation about the Harley Riders this year . . . as I noticed the last 4 or 5 years: Bikers are becoming more and more middle class or retirees.

Back in the day, Harley riders were real bikers. Members of the Outlaws or Pagans motorcycle clubs wore their colors and mixed it up with other real bikers

. . . usually Vietnam Veterans with attitude.

Then from 1992-2001, we saw more and more well to do bikers, doctors, lawyers, business owners, added to the mix. These were the guys with money and whom we called "Weekend Bikers". Tips were excellent with these guys.

These wealthy weekend bikers soon outnumbered real bikers. And as the years wore on, real bikers became a rarity in the ranks of bikers who made the pilgrimage to Daytona, Sturgis and Key West.

In fact, many of the weekend bikers such as bigwig execs from Budweiser would have their motorcycles shipped via truck to Key West or Sturgis. They would fly in. Then pick up their bikes at the hotel. Then put on their Harley Davidson uniforms to blend in and co-opt the cool factor.

During the past 5 Spring Breaks/Poker Runs it seems every dude who never played contact sports, who never wore a military uniform, who never worked in a good paying/non-boring job, and who never worked out a day in their lives, bought a Harley to "co-opt" bad ass attitudes to scare "civilians"and get noticed.

To me and others in the bar trade, it's like a cartoon which becomes bigger every year.

These Baby Boomer Blobs are the last big lump of people to buy Harleys. To steal a phrase from 80s Hip-Hop, these latest Harley Riders are ghetto fabulous

. . . or hand to mouth existers . . . wanting to feel like they are non-conformists by consuming a brand idea to show the world they are different.

Like the wealthy Harley Davidson buyers, the new group is trying to co-opt attitude. It's not a way of life. It's an adopted lifestyle, a last chance to get "respect" before they die.

I also think that many of the latest buyers of Harleys are not just buying the "attitude" of real bikers. I believe many of the lonesome men are also hoping women will think they are wealthier than they really are.

I call these new bikers, "Harley Defecit" riders. Many of these "Debt riders" used their homes as their ATM to buy these machines. Some have extended payments for 84 months so that they can "afford" the machine which gives them some comfort that they are "different".

With everybody buying Harley, what's so cool about being like everybody else?

I believe Harley Davidson's cache name is now going to suffer from "line extension".

The mystique will suffer from every Tom, Dick and Harry buying a Harley just to be cool before death takes them down for the last slide.

The people buying Harleys now and riding down to Bike Week in Key West are so cheap or broke, our security and waitresses constantly have to remind them about the "One Drink Minimum" rule at our club.

Whereas our dancers used to love bikers and the money they brought in to tip them, we now have dancers taking off the whole week of Bike Week because this new influx of badass wannabes have very little disposable money to spend. Their retirement money or their wages are all locked into meeting the monthly payments of being "cool".

You know the world of Harley riders has changed when many of the men are meek, mild and don't have a dime to tip a stripper.

I am wondering if this is some kind of new age contrarian indicator: when everybody buys a Harley on credit and can't afford to drink, that's the time to look for a market decline or severe recession?

We shall see . . . But one thing is for sure: Harley Davidson's brand name is now lamer than it ever was.

Sure, Harley has sold more bikes in the past 3 years than ever before. But its name is losing cutting edge badassness with the youngest American bikers.

Our Young Laugh at Harley Davidson Motorcycles . . . And Grizzled Bikers Don't Want to be Associated with Baby Boomer Blobs on Harley's Either, Hence the Crotch Rockets, Chopped Bikes, and Alternative Brands are Taking Off . . .

What we have seen with American car companies being trumped by the Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, we are now seeing with Japanese bike manufacturers.

Our youth look at the soft pudgy men buying Harley's who couldn't hold their own in a good bar fight and they think, "Harley is lame."

Prediction: Harley Davidson will be looked down upon as GM products are now in another generation.

Yamaha, Honda, and Suziki will no longer be denigrated as "rice burners" by American youth.

And the new American machine to own for highway riding will be the Victory Motorcycle - "The Other American Motorcycle Company".

Although Victory Motorcycles is not outselling Harley, Victory is on a growth rate which reminds me of Harley in the late 80s.

Not only this, but Victory, unlike Harley, is stepping into the future and providing the first radical design from an American Motorcycle company which is sure to catch on with young riders once the bike is released.

Victory's regular road bikes with beautiful paint jobs, sleek design, and plenty of power are catching on with "real" bikers. You will be seeing more and more Victory tats and emblems everywhere as this brand takes off in popularity with men who want to distance themselves from the lame Harley name.















Victory is looked upon as the upstart, exciting, looking forward and not eyes glued to the rear view mirror.

As an analyst of the stock market, I am following Victory's parent company, Polaris, which makes not only motorcycles, but ATVs, snowmobiles, and other exciting outdoor vehicles with good ole " 'Murcan Pride ".

"Bye-bye Ms. American Pie, Drove My Chevy to the Levy . . . and Traded it In for a Toyota . . . "

On another observation for American durables:

American youth is not buying into the American car myth that 60s muscle cars are the most powerful cars of all time.

I don't know how many people of my age are not aware of what is happening with the huge sea change in thought when it comes to buying "kewl".

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  First of all, muscle cars are way out of the range of all American youth. If you don't believe me, go to Ebay and look at the prices these cars are commadning in auctions now: high 5 and lower 6 figures are the norm.
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  Secondly, the only American cars our school kids buy are older 80s and certain 90s cars with the ability to be jacked into lowriders with 22 inch wheels. Those are the only American cars which our youth are buying to retrofit.
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  Thirdly, when it comes to speed and horsepower, no one under the age of 25 is buying anything American. It's all Japanese and South Korean.

The hottest rides on the streets are Japanese or South Korean fast cars with computer jacks under the hood and nitrous mixed as a coolant from keeping the overamped engines from exploding.

Horsepower is unebelievable. Engines which once were designed for 150 HP are now cranking 300 to 400 HP easily with computer modifications, extra fuel injection and mixing, nitrous cooling and so on.

These souped up cars now sport computer screens mounted on the dashboards of these cars. The computers allow the driver to use touchscreen mixes of fuel and nitrous in illegal street drags or while flying through traffic. (This is going to be one of the things to cause more calamitous high speed accidents in the future: mixing fuel and nitrous, adjusting torgue, arranging for hotter spark, etc., all without having to stop your car, open the hood, and use a wrench. It's all done on the fly while driving at 100MPH or more.)

What I am seeing is a new world where American youth have turned their backs on American brands for cars and motorcycles.

Sure the Escalades and Dodge 300s which were hot sellers to hip hop lovers a few years ago . . . and still are . . . are still sought after by a crowd of young guys who are brainwashed into buying "bling" to show off their cool factor.

But hip-hop machines cost serious money and are only for guys out of high school and with good jobs . . . or . . . they are bought by street gangs who sell drugs and need to outfit their SUVs with armor and special bullet proof glass. (There is an expanding market for this type of thing all over America, and it is not really talked about. Most people think its for security conscious executives or government purchases. The murder of famous rapper Biggie Smalls jump started the sales of armor protection in this country way before terrorism threats made white collar guys paranoid.)

But the middle class youth with smaller budgets are into this speed thing like I was in the 60s. And speed and danger don't come from American car manufacturers any longer. It's Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi (Mits are the "cheap" brand in young peoples minds) Hyundai and a few other brands which are now to American youth what American muscle cars were to Baby Boomers in the 60s.

Thoughts: Toyota is the new safe "Blue Chip" car company young and old should be buying for years to come.

All one has to do is take I-95 through Miami during rush hour to see the Japanese super cars shoot like lightning snakes through the slower moving traffic to know American car names are no longer hip with our youth.






The Asian Lions and Tigers Have Awakened

Thus, cars and motorcycles, are now only cool (or kewl) to our youth if they come from Asia.

William Gibson, the great cyber punk author, predicted how this would change in a wired world where cultures clashed and new hybrids birthed. Gibson was dead on accurate when he had all his bad ass characters use imported bikes, televisions, hacker ware, clothing and more. He saw what was going to happen.

The world which Gibson predicted in the late 80s and early 90s is now here with American youth.

When you see the youngest bikers park their "rice burners" in a line of Harleys and not give a flying fuck about playing "tough" by covering themselves in Harley icons, you know America has lost one of its last vestige exports: cool.

As for carsToyota, Honda, and maybe Hyundai will be the Big Three of the 21st Century.

As for motorcycles, Yamaha, Suzuki and Honda will outsell Harleys to American youngsters who've added on 30 years.

America has lost its edge in durable production.

Our cars and bikes are not sought after by the generations rising.

All you have to do is pay attention to see this big sea change in brand selection.

Pay attention. The future is out there and sending smoke signals to trend watchers. Invest accordingly.