30 December 2009
29 December 2009
Bought 180 Shares Of Exxon on 22 Dec 09
On December 22, 2009 I initiated a small strade in Exxon, 180 shares @ $68.64 per share.
As the S&P 500 set a new 52 week high just yesterday, I'm holding my breath on this one. I've set a stop/loss of $67.52 which I will raise at the end of today if we have an UP day with a higher low for Exxon.
Exxon recently bought out XTO for it's gas properties. Exxon got hammered on that announcement. Still, it's one of the bluest of blue chips, pays an excellent dividend, is very profitable, and it hit some parameters on my chart above which gave me the confidence to buy 180 shares.
Wish me luck. I'm shooting for a a quick run up to $72-$73 where I'll sell the 180 shares if I can find something better to buy.
Oh, and just found out this AM that Warren Buffet has been buying a boatload of Exxon at higher prices than where I've just entered. Nice to have the sage on my side.
Caveat emptor,
Rock in the Florida Keys
(click on image below to see the chart with trendlines and notes)
As the S&P 500 set a new 52 week high just yesterday, I'm holding my breath on this one. I've set a stop/loss of $67.52 which I will raise at the end of today if we have an UP day with a higher low for Exxon.
Exxon recently bought out XTO for it's gas properties. Exxon got hammered on that announcement. Still, it's one of the bluest of blue chips, pays an excellent dividend, is very profitable, and it hit some parameters on my chart above which gave me the confidence to buy 180 shares.
Wish me luck. I'm shooting for a a quick run up to $72-$73 where I'll sell the 180 shares if I can find something better to buy.
Oh, and just found out this AM that Warren Buffet has been buying a boatload of Exxon at higher prices than where I've just entered. Nice to have the sage on my side.
Caveat emptor,
Rock in the Florida Keys
24 November 2009
Gas, LNG & Oil Outlook
Shell/Qatar partnered LNG plant is delayed by another year
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) said it had delayed one of its largest schemes by around a year with start-up for the $8 billion Qatargas 4 liquefied natural gas project now planned for late 2010 and the first cargo possibly pushed into 2011.
The delay, which a Shell spokeswoman said was due to contractors struggling to keep up with the pace of developments in Qatar's gas industry, will make it harder for the Anglo-Dutch oil major to turn around a long run of falling production.
"We had been planning for a start-up in early 2010 but now we expect that to come in late 2010," the spokeswoman said on Monday, adding the slippage represented a delay of 10 months.
She declined to say when first cargoes would load but a statement from the company said ramp-up of the project could continue into 2011, raising the prospect the facility may not be in a position to load ships until then.
One dealer said they were not surprised by the delay, as Shell had flagged problems to analysts in recent weeks.
Further delays are possible, with industry analysts at Waterborne LNG saying they expect first cargoes in mid 2011.
The postponement could ease pressure on LNG prices which have come under pressure after the economic recession hit gas demand. Most economists expect the global economy, and energy demand, to be stronger in 2011 than 2010.
The Qatargas 4 project will produce 7.8 million tonnes of LNG annually, equivalent to 280,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
State-run Qatar Petroleum owns 70 percent of the project, while Shell owns the rest. Gas will be exported to China and Dubai under oil price-linked contracts which will make the project highly profitable, analysts said.
LNG is natural gas cooled to liquid so it can be exported in ships over distances too far for pipelines to be economic.
Shell has a target of 2 percent to 3 percent average annual growth between 2009 and 2012, despite output falling in recent years.
Qatargas was not immediately available for comment.
Europe's largest oil company by market value said its larger Pearl gas-to-liquids project in Qatar was scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010, with production ramp-up from late 2010 and into 2011.
In March, then-Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said Pearl would come onstream in late 2010 or early 2011.
As India's demand for energy grows, it seeks additional LNG (liquefied natural gas) from Qatar
China to divert more industrial natural gas to its people this coming December and January
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China has no plan to cut oil imports from Iran
It is reported that China has no plan to decrease its oil imports from Iran, the world fifth largest crude exporter.
Mr Wang Tianpu president of top refiner Sinopec Corp said China oil imports from Iran will remain at the current level of around 400,000 barrels per day.
The comment came as China announced that it will increase its oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about 12% from this year to top one million barrels a day.
Reuters quoted a Sinopec trader as saying that “We have to secure other supplies as the OPEC cuts may affect grades that our plants really need.”
Iran is the No 3 oil supplier of China, the world’s No 2 oil user.
Total Finds Oil In Vietnam
Are Higher Prices the 'New Normal' for Oil?
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) said it had delayed one of its largest schemes by around a year with start-up for the $8 billion Qatargas 4 liquefied natural gas project now planned for late 2010 and the first cargo possibly pushed into 2011.
The delay, which a Shell spokeswoman said was due to contractors struggling to keep up with the pace of developments in Qatar's gas industry, will make it harder for the Anglo-Dutch oil major to turn around a long run of falling production.
"We had been planning for a start-up in early 2010 but now we expect that to come in late 2010," the spokeswoman said on Monday, adding the slippage represented a delay of 10 months.
She declined to say when first cargoes would load but a statement from the company said ramp-up of the project could continue into 2011, raising the prospect the facility may not be in a position to load ships until then.
One dealer said they were not surprised by the delay, as Shell had flagged problems to analysts in recent weeks.
Further delays are possible, with industry analysts at Waterborne LNG saying they expect first cargoes in mid 2011.
The postponement could ease pressure on LNG prices which have come under pressure after the economic recession hit gas demand. Most economists expect the global economy, and energy demand, to be stronger in 2011 than 2010.
The Qatargas 4 project will produce 7.8 million tonnes of LNG annually, equivalent to 280,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
State-run Qatar Petroleum owns 70 percent of the project, while Shell owns the rest. Gas will be exported to China and Dubai under oil price-linked contracts which will make the project highly profitable, analysts said.
LNG is natural gas cooled to liquid so it can be exported in ships over distances too far for pipelines to be economic.
Shell has a target of 2 percent to 3 percent average annual growth between 2009 and 2012, despite output falling in recent years.
Qatargas was not immediately available for comment.
Europe's largest oil company by market value said its larger Pearl gas-to-liquids project in Qatar was scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010, with production ramp-up from late 2010 and into 2011.
In March, then-Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said Pearl would come onstream in late 2010 or early 2011.
As India's demand for energy grows, it seeks additional LNG (liquefied natural gas) from Qatar
China to divert more industrial natural gas to its people this coming December and January
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China has no plan to cut oil imports from Iran
It is reported that China has no plan to decrease its oil imports from Iran, the world fifth largest crude exporter.
Mr Wang Tianpu president of top refiner Sinopec Corp said China oil imports from Iran will remain at the current level of around 400,000 barrels per day.
The comment came as China announced that it will increase its oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about 12% from this year to top one million barrels a day.
Reuters quoted a Sinopec trader as saying that “We have to secure other supplies as the OPEC cuts may affect grades that our plants really need.”
Iran is the No 3 oil supplier of China, the world’s No 2 oil user.
Total Finds Oil In Vietnam
Are Higher Prices the 'New Normal' for Oil?
The Daily Crux Interviews Marin Katusa of Casey Research On Oil As An Investment
Just ran across this interesting interview between Brian Hunt of The Daily Crux and Marin Katusa of Casey Research on the future of Energy around the planet.The direct link is here for those of you wanting to read the entire transcript is here:
The Best Energy Investments in the World
Here are some of my favorite gems from the interview. I will highlight those words which especially should be used by you to form a sharper macro-economic view of the world going forward.
I am cutting out any specific mention of companies which Casey Research is recommending. I am simply reprinting the macro-economic views expressed in this interview to help you understand that cheap oil is a thing of our past and as Jim Kunstler would say, the days of "Happy Motoring" . . . making suburbs and exburbs affordable to masses working in the cities . . . are ebbing because of Peak Oil:
The Daily Crux: Marin... we noticed you guys at Casey Research are bullish on energy. Can you explain to us why?
Marin Katusa: Well, as we've mentioned in our Casey Energy letters, we're short-term bears but long-term bulls.
I think there's a very good chance oil will be knocked back down along with other markets in the short term, but I'd consider that a rare opportunity to buy the best companies at a steep discount. Long term, I'm very bullish on oil because I think the supply of cheap oil is running out.
The days of cheap and easy oil are over. Oil is getting harder and harder to extract because most of the easy-to-find deposits have already been found and extracted.
The best remaining deposits are deep underwater like in the Gulf of Mexico or offshore of Brazil, in state-controlled or politically unstable areas like Iran and Venezuela, or experiencing dramatically falling production like Mexico. There are also huge oil-sands deposits in Canada, but these are more expensive to extract - anywhere from $35-$40 per barrel for existing production, up to $65 or more for new production.
The simple fact is oil prices will eventually rise due to the increased costs involved in meeting existing demand.
On top of that, you've got developing countries beginning to significantly increase their own demand. Right now, you've got just 30 or so of the world's most developed countries, known as the OECD, that consume about half of all the oil produced.
As emerging countries like China and India begin to increase their standard of living, they'll start using a lot more oil. As you guys know, oil consumption per capita is tied very closely to GDP per capita of the country. So this means these emerging countries could be using multiples of the oil that they use now.
Today, China uses just under six barrels of oil per day for every thousand people. In India, it's about two and a half barrels for every thousand. In the U.S., it's just under 70 barrels for every thousand. Even if you figure just a 20% increase in China and India per person - those are huge, huge numbers. China alone has over a billion people. This is going to add tremendous upward pressure on prices.
And of course, I'm sure your readers are aware of the long-term threats to the U.S. dollar. Dollar depreciation will only make the problems I just mentioned that much worse.
That said, in the short term, I think oil is very vulnerable to pullbacks in the general stock market. So we've been telling our subscribers to be very cautious. In fact, a year ago, I decided to use $40 oil as the basis for all of our analyses for our newsletter. If a company we were looking at wouldn't be profitable at $40 oil, then we wouldn't go any further. The logic behind $40 was to provide a real margin of safety should we get the correction in oil I'm expecting.
But it also pushed me to look a lot deeper and be more selective, and it's really paid off in our results - over 90% of my recommendations over the last year have delivered significant profits for our subscribers.
The funny thing is that by not using $70 or $80 oil, I started getting hate mail from people, saying, "Don't you know oil's at $73 and you're using $40?" It was hilarious, but that's exactly my point. If a company cannot be profitable at $40 per barrel of oil, it will underperform its peers even when oil is higher. When I use $40 oil and I like the financials - it's gold.
A good example of this is what we did with Nexen. When I first wrote it up, it was trading at C$23 per share. After doing my analysis, I thought its intrinsic value was less. I said, "Buy under C$16 per share." Of course, I got people writing in saying I was out of my mind for setting the buy price so low. Just over a month later, it was trading down below C$16 per share, and my subscribers ended up making about 50% within four months on a low-risk company.
So by using $40 oil, I get my true value, rather than the market value. There's a difference between intrinsic value and the market value, and I go with intrinsic value. I don't care what people are paying in the market right now. You might not get it today, you might not get it next week. You have to be patient. It's what I call "stink bid investing."
Crux: What else do you look for?
Katusa: Another factor I like to look at is what I call game changers. An example of a game changer is what has recently happened to the natural gas sector in the United States. Companies were victims of their own success, because they were so successful in using new technologies to retrieve gas from the shales, they drove the natural gas price down.
Using advanced technologies to discover big offshore deposits is an example of a game changer in oil. But what you're going to see is a lot of the big finds are going to be drilled by the major oil companies - what I call the super majors - because it's just so expensive to drill these targets.
Crux: Nobody else has the money.
Katusa: That's right. So the only frontiers left for conventional oil production that can be extracted easily and cheaply, like I mentioned before, are in politically unstable countries like Iran, Iraq, Libya.
These countries are fully aware of the potential of their resources locked within their borders. They're increasing the royalties they charge, including the gradual increase in the use of service fee contracts.
We spent a whole issue talking about this in our Casey Energy Report, in the October issue. In countries where the governments hold the ownership of the oil - such as south central Iraq, Kuwait, even potentially Mexico - these are places that you want to watch out for, because they are constitutionally barred from giving foreign oil companies ownership of the oil in the ground. They're not as positive as people think they are.
A reliable and friendly oil source to the United States, such as the Alberta oil sands, is not cheap to produce. The oil sands require at least $35-$40 per barrel at the very minimum to extract, compared to less than $5 per barrel in places like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait.
Proven reserves in politically stable parts of the world unfortunately will cost the U.S. consumer a lot more money per barrel. We spent a lot of time in our latest issue of Casey's Energy Opportunities looking at all of the national oil companies. Of those, you've really only got three you can possibly invest in, if you dare.
Crux: How about your take on the likelihood of big takeovers and buyouts? Do you see oil-hungry nations like China coming in to buy up a lot of reserves?
Katusa: Absolutely, but it's not just going to be the Chinese, it's also going to be big oil companies who want to replace their production with proven reserves in the ground.
An advantage the Chinese companies will have over the Western oil companies is the Chinese ability to leverage their political and economic muscle in places such as Africa, Venezuela, and Bolivia.
These countries potentially hold world-class oil deposits, but it's much riskier for a Western company to explore these regions than the powerful Chinese oil companies.
Crux: China is already in a bidding war with ExxonMobil for African oil...
Katusa: Right. What our angle is, if you're looking to invest in Africa, you're looking for elephant-size deposits - what they call "world class deposits."
The company needs to go in with a crew able to maneuver in politically unstable parts of the world. . .
An interview with Marin Katusa, Casey Research
November 25th, 2009
23 November 2009
Ben Bernanke: Greatest Hits
This clip is a splice of 5 appearances on CNBC. This is the top Economic Analyst in the land, the current head of the Federal Reserve.
Like Greenspan, Bernanke seems to have had a different and badly distorted perception of the Economy which hundreds of accurate and clear eyed bloggers saw. Hell, there were normal Americans by the dozens on Motley Fool message boards who predicted the Housing Crash, the Credit Crisis and the Great Recession back in 2004-2005.
It won't be long . . . and I almost guarantee this: someone in the government will praise Bernanke for "saving our Economy".
Never mind he was blind to the red hot overheating of housing, the loosely regulated banks, the corrupt ratings agencies, the unregulated sidebets on CDSs backed up by AIG which was nowhere nearly funded for a black swan event, and so on and so forth.
Bernanke, like Greenspan, was the perfectly calm shill for the banking cartel which they represent, even when the storm clouds were coming at them from all directions.
Watch this video and scratch your heads. Bloggers all over the net were right as rain about the coming pain. Bernanke? He simply couldn't see it coming. And this is the guy who wrote a book about the Great Depression?
Like Greenspan, Bernanke seems to have had a different and badly distorted perception of the Economy which hundreds of accurate and clear eyed bloggers saw. Hell, there were normal Americans by the dozens on Motley Fool message boards who predicted the Housing Crash, the Credit Crisis and the Great Recession back in 2004-2005.
It won't be long . . . and I almost guarantee this: someone in the government will praise Bernanke for "saving our Economy".
Never mind he was blind to the red hot overheating of housing, the loosely regulated banks, the corrupt ratings agencies, the unregulated sidebets on CDSs backed up by AIG which was nowhere nearly funded for a black swan event, and so on and so forth.
Bernanke, like Greenspan, was the perfectly calm shill for the banking cartel which they represent, even when the storm clouds were coming at them from all directions.
Watch this video and scratch your heads. Bloggers all over the net were right as rain about the coming pain. Bernanke? He simply couldn't see it coming. And this is the guy who wrote a book about the Great Depression?
The Burned: "Where Are We Now?"
I discovered an uncredited song the other night at the end of Season 2, Episode 1 of Crash.
After a long Google search, I found the name of the singer/songwriter of the haunting piece of music was one, Kurt Baumann. I found him on a site for unsigned musicians called Band Camp.
The song which fit perfectly into the finale of the first episode of Season 2 of Crash was Baumann's "Where Are We Now?"
Kurt Baumann writes:
I wrote this song on a transformational journey down in the desert lands of Mexico. It was also featured on the season premier of "Crash" in October 2009.
(Note: The Burned is Baumann's band name. And his first album The Burned will release on Jan. 26, 2010.
Click this link to hear the first cut, "Where Are We Now".
lyrics to "Where Are We Now?"
I remember I’ve been here before
Some other time some other doorway in my mind
Straight back to you
The grass is never greener than it was before
I’ve seen her change her mind and blink her eye
Its still the same place
Oh Where are we now
Missing a few pieces to your broken hearted Jesus
May the shining light of reason guide us all
Inner voices outer choices opposites and Godly forces
All lead me back home to you
Oh where are we now
Far away
World wide
Heaven hides
I just don’t feel it anymore
It used to be here once before
But I just don’t feel it anymore
Oh where are we now
After a long Google search, I found the name of the singer/songwriter of the haunting piece of music was one, Kurt Baumann. I found him on a site for unsigned musicians called Band Camp.
The song which fit perfectly into the finale of the first episode of Season 2 of Crash was Baumann's "Where Are We Now?"
Kurt Baumann writes:
I wrote this song on a transformational journey down in the desert lands of Mexico. It was also featured on the season premier of "Crash" in October 2009.
(Note: The Burned is Baumann's band name. And his first album The Burned will release on Jan. 26, 2010.
Click this link to hear the first cut, "Where Are We Now".
lyrics to "Where Are We Now?"
I remember I’ve been here before
Some other time some other doorway in my mind
Straight back to you
The grass is never greener than it was before
I’ve seen her change her mind and blink her eye
Its still the same place
Oh Where are we now
Missing a few pieces to your broken hearted Jesus
May the shining light of reason guide us all
Inner voices outer choices opposites and Godly forces
All lead me back home to you
Oh where are we now
Far away
World wide
Heaven hides
I just don’t feel it anymore
It used to be here once before
But I just don’t feel it anymore
Oh where are we now
22 November 2009
Solar power technology takes its next step
Cadbury to reject Hershey takeover
Nearly 60,000 media jobs have evaporated in New York City alone
Gold hits fresh high, as December contract tops $1,160
Layoffs: As the US slowly dismantles its refinery sector, Valero's Delware Refinery is shutting down and cutting 550 jobs
A good Investopedia article explaining support and resistance areas in stock trading
Cloning livestock for food is catching on across the world
Cadbury to reject Hershey takeover
Nearly 60,000 media jobs have evaporated in New York City alone
Gold hits fresh high, as December contract tops $1,160 Fleck: "How Much Longer Can Gold Rise?"
Layoffs: 115 year old California Portland Cement Company lays off 3/4 (94) of its workers
Layoffs: As the US slowly dismantles its refinery sector, Valero's Delware Refinery is shutting down and cutting 550 jobs
A good Investopedia article explaining support and resistance areas in stock trading
Cloning livestock for food is catching on across the world
17 November 2009
16 November 2009
NOVA/Frontline's "Harvest of Fear" - An In Depth Look At Genetecially Modified Food
Most Americans do not know we have been eating Genetically Modified foods of all kinds for the past 5 years.
These "Frankenfoods" entered our mainstream food supply in everything from Coca Cola to Kraft's Mayonnaise with little to non-existent debate. Mainstream Media has, for the most part, ignored the debate between environmentalists, scientists, farmers and consumers on both sides. Frontline looks at the questions and risks, and answers them with clarity while weighing rewards against the risks.
Questions which Frontline will answer through this 12 part program are:
Are scientists tampering with nature?
Will genetically modified organisms damage the environment?
Does the world really need GMO's?
Can genes be patented?
Most importantly, are Genetically Modified Organisms safe to eat?
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 1/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 2/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 3/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 4/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 5/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 6/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 7/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 8/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 9/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 10/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 11/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 12/12
These "Frankenfoods" entered our mainstream food supply in everything from Coca Cola to Kraft's Mayonnaise with little to non-existent debate. Mainstream Media has, for the most part, ignored the debate between environmentalists, scientists, farmers and consumers on both sides. Frontline looks at the questions and risks, and answers them with clarity while weighing rewards against the risks.
Questions which Frontline will answer through this 12 part program are:
Are scientists tampering with nature?
Will genetically modified organisms damage the environment?
Does the world really need GMO's?
Can genes be patented?
Most importantly, are Genetically Modified Organisms safe to eat?
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 1/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 2/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 3/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 4/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 5/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 6/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 7/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 8/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 9/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 10/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 11/12
NOVA/Frontline Harvest of Fear 12/12
15 November 2009
12 November 2009
11 November 2009
Two Views In The Healthcare Debate: CNBC's Dylan Ratigan vs. Chamber of Commerce's James Gelfand + One Bonus Ratigan Video
Ratigan points out We the People are being left out of the current health care debate. We are haggling over values systems (abortion) to hide who is really benefitting from the current Health Insurance monopoly in this country. Lower quality, higher premiums and Ratigan asks, "Do you think your employer really cares as much about your health as you? You should be the "decider" of what type of health care you will need over your life, not the government, not the Insurance Company."
Ratigan also shows Auto Insurance commercials pitting All State vs. Geico vs. Progressive and wonders why we the citizens who can pick among competing car insurers cannot pick among competing health insurers which would drive down prices, and jack up quality? Good questions, Dylan.
Finally, I love how Dylan reframes the debate by saying, "Tell Congress healthcare shouldn't be a collective decision made by Corporate Communitsts or the National Government." Keep fighting the fight, Mr. Ratigan.
On the other hand is James Gelfand of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who says people are afraid health care costs will go up under the Democrats healthcare plan.
Liz Clayman doesn't want to eat out of Gelfand's hand. She points out that private health insurance costs have jumped over 74% in the past eight years for small businesses. She rhetorically asks, "This is an outrage, is it not?"
Clayman then asks this corporate flack for his solution to this problem. "Well, actually it should be pretty simple. It shouldn't cost us a trillion dollars, we shouldn't have to raise taxes by $600 Billion, we shouldn't have to slash Medicare by another $500 Billion," and then he suggests we get costs under control (the same thing the Democrats have been seeking to do since the 90s), and that we do this with tort reform, regulate the Insurance companies (did he really say "no more turning people away"?), but then this blow light says there are really only 10 million people in this country who don't have health insurance. That tells me right there this shill, this sellout, is no more than a squawking parrot of people who've got free health insurance as part of their employment package (like Congressmen and Banksters and Corporate Execs), while not having any idea how many people driving taxis, digging ditches, working in bars, hotels, and convenience store have absolutely zilch health care insurance because they cannot afford the payments.
What David Lareah was for the National Realtors Association in its run up through the Housing Bubble (chief Kool-Aid dipper), so to is James Gelfand to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Except whereas Lareah blew happy smoke up consumers' asses, Gelfand is trying to drive spikes of fear into consumers' minds and hearts.
Ratigan talks more sense than Gelfand, no question about it.
Bonus - MSNBC's Ratigan Calls out Guest for Lying: Coming on Television and Lying is Not Journalism
Ratigan also shows Auto Insurance commercials pitting All State vs. Geico vs. Progressive and wonders why we the citizens who can pick among competing car insurers cannot pick among competing health insurers which would drive down prices, and jack up quality? Good questions, Dylan.
Finally, I love how Dylan reframes the debate by saying, "Tell Congress healthcare shouldn't be a collective decision made by Corporate Communitsts or the National Government." Keep fighting the fight, Mr. Ratigan.
On the other hand is James Gelfand of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who says people are afraid health care costs will go up under the Democrats healthcare plan.
Liz Clayman doesn't want to eat out of Gelfand's hand. She points out that private health insurance costs have jumped over 74% in the past eight years for small businesses. She rhetorically asks, "This is an outrage, is it not?"
Clayman then asks this corporate flack for his solution to this problem. "Well, actually it should be pretty simple. It shouldn't cost us a trillion dollars, we shouldn't have to raise taxes by $600 Billion, we shouldn't have to slash Medicare by another $500 Billion," and then he suggests we get costs under control (the same thing the Democrats have been seeking to do since the 90s), and that we do this with tort reform, regulate the Insurance companies (did he really say "no more turning people away"?), but then this blow light says there are really only 10 million people in this country who don't have health insurance. That tells me right there this shill, this sellout, is no more than a squawking parrot of people who've got free health insurance as part of their employment package (like Congressmen and Banksters and Corporate Execs), while not having any idea how many people driving taxis, digging ditches, working in bars, hotels, and convenience store have absolutely zilch health care insurance because they cannot afford the payments.
What David Lareah was for the National Realtors Association in its run up through the Housing Bubble (chief Kool-Aid dipper), so to is James Gelfand to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Except whereas Lareah blew happy smoke up consumers' asses, Gelfand is trying to drive spikes of fear into consumers' minds and hearts.
Ratigan talks more sense than Gelfand, no question about it.
Bonus - MSNBC's Ratigan Calls out Guest for Lying: Coming on Television and Lying is Not Journalism
Peter Schiff Says "What Gold Tells You Is What the Purchasing Value of the US Dollar Is Worth"
Peter Schiff guesses gold will go to $5,000 or higher. Wow, big call.
Bill Moyer's Exclusive Web Interview of Glenn Greenwald
This particular interview did not run on PBS, it was a web exclusive.
Bill Moyer interviewed Glenn Greenwald, author of "How Would A Patriot Act," and "A Tragic Legacy".
This interview is broken into 3 parts. It is going to cover politics more than business/Economics, but the underlying theme here is a story about government controlled by Corporate Policy.
Greenwald also writes an award winning blog for Salon.com, and he is very well spoken and brutally honest about why America fights wars with countries which have no Air Force. Greenwalds also talks to Bill about the corruption of the Afghan government by the CIA and drug lords. Greenwald asserts that we are basically funding drug lords to raise arms money which are in turn used against our own soldiers and NATO troops.
Greenwald also scores points when talking about America's perpetual state of war, where we always find some country in whose affairs we must meddle. Greenwald asks, why are we overseas "nation building", erecting schools, paving highways, building infrastructure, when our own citizens are losing their jobs and having to do without?
This is an eye opening interview and should be used to frame the debate about Afghanistan, Iraq and all foreign policy.
All parts of this interview have nuggets of gold, from an Adam Smith quote I've never heard to Greenwald making a huge point about "empathy" for our enemies in understanding why our war mongering is manufacturing more terrorists and hatred for America.
By the way, lest you think Greenwald is a flaming knee-jerk Liberal, he is very critical of the Obama White House in Part 3 over issues such as the continuance of Bush/Cheney's use of torture, no habeus corpus jails in Afghanistan, corporate welfare for Big Banks, etc.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Bill Moyer interviewed Glenn Greenwald, author of "How Would A Patriot Act," and "A Tragic Legacy".
This interview is broken into 3 parts. It is going to cover politics more than business/Economics, but the underlying theme here is a story about government controlled by Corporate Policy.
Greenwald also writes an award winning blog for Salon.com, and he is very well spoken and brutally honest about why America fights wars with countries which have no Air Force. Greenwalds also talks to Bill about the corruption of the Afghan government by the CIA and drug lords. Greenwald asserts that we are basically funding drug lords to raise arms money which are in turn used against our own soldiers and NATO troops.
Greenwald also scores points when talking about America's perpetual state of war, where we always find some country in whose affairs we must meddle. Greenwald asks, why are we overseas "nation building", erecting schools, paving highways, building infrastructure, when our own citizens are losing their jobs and having to do without?
This is an eye opening interview and should be used to frame the debate about Afghanistan, Iraq and all foreign policy.
All parts of this interview have nuggets of gold, from an Adam Smith quote I've never heard to Greenwald making a huge point about "empathy" for our enemies in understanding why our war mongering is manufacturing more terrorists and hatred for America.
By the way, lest you think Greenwald is a flaming knee-jerk Liberal, he is very critical of the Obama White House in Part 3 over issues such as the continuance of Bush/Cheney's use of torture, no habeus corpus jails in Afghanistan, corporate welfare for Big Banks, etc.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
10 November 2009
Nick Hildyard On Civil Society And Banks
Nick Hildyard from the Cornerhouse at The Bigger Picture Festival in London October 2009 (organized by nef - the new economics foundation. Filmed by EcoLabs.)
Since its founding in 1997, The Corner House has aimed to support democratic and community movements for environmental and social justice. It is motivated by the concerns of such movements, whether they be locally-based struggles for land or water rights or better health care; campaigns against destructive mining, dam or forestry projects; or struggles against racial discrimination.
Here, Nick Hildyard of the Corner House tells his audience that the Big Banks are much better organized than We the People. I believe it's always a good thing to listen to people whose views on religions, Economy, politics, etc., don't mesh with my views . . . and Hildyard's view on government is way more benign than mine. However, I like what he says about people vs. the Big Banks.
I'm outraged about Goldman Sachs power and how it is growing geometrically throughout this crisis. So is Nick Hildyard. Listening to him, I found myself shaking my head virorously in agreement and disagreement during his short speech. Still, his anger against the Big Banks is not misplaced.
Give this a listen to understand more clearly we are sitting on a powder keg of lower and middle class anger across the world, and if the banksters don't start listening soon, this Recession could turn into something much worse than what we've experienced thusfar...
Since its founding in 1997, The Corner House has aimed to support democratic and community movements for environmental and social justice. It is motivated by the concerns of such movements, whether they be locally-based struggles for land or water rights or better health care; campaigns against destructive mining, dam or forestry projects; or struggles against racial discrimination.
Here, Nick Hildyard of the Corner House tells his audience that the Big Banks are much better organized than We the People. I believe it's always a good thing to listen to people whose views on religions, Economy, politics, etc., don't mesh with my views . . . and Hildyard's view on government is way more benign than mine. However, I like what he says about people vs. the Big Banks.
I'm outraged about Goldman Sachs power and how it is growing geometrically throughout this crisis. So is Nick Hildyard. Listening to him, I found myself shaking my head virorously in agreement and disagreement during his short speech. Still, his anger against the Big Banks is not misplaced.
Give this a listen to understand more clearly we are sitting on a powder keg of lower and middle class anger across the world, and if the banksters don't start listening soon, this Recession could turn into something much worse than what we've experienced thusfar...
Charlie Gasparino Warns Against Banks Wanting Another Bailout
Charlie Gasparino says if unemployment goes to 11%, watch out. Banks will be going back to the government for more loans. He says Wall Street hasn't learned any lessons here. He says banks aren't lending and that Goldman Sachs is now a commercial bank with cheap borrowing from the Fed which goes to bonuses and preparations for the next bailout.
Gasparino says cut the umbilical cord now. No more bailouts!
Gasparino says cut the umbilical cord now. No more bailouts!
09 November 2009
Elizabeth Warren on "Life After Tarp" or "How We've Increased Moral Hazard In The Finance Sector"
Here's hoping that Elizabeth Warren will quit teaching at Harvard and leave her Congressional post for a run at the Presidency.
$8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit Extended And Explained
If you are a first time homebuyer wanting to buy a home/condo/houseboat, you need to know that the $8,000 homebuyers tax credit has been extended
Eventhough I was against the extension of this handout, I'm still going to pass along this info for those of you who may have waited long enough for what you may feel is a real deal. (Caveat emptor: I still feel Real Estate will fall another 25 to 50% across the nation.)
That said, some of you still do not understand how the tax credit works. Here's a short video to explain it in very clear fashion:
Eventhough I was against the extension of this handout, I'm still going to pass along this info for those of you who may have waited long enough for what you may feel is a real deal. (Caveat emptor: I still feel Real Estate will fall another 25 to 50% across the nation.)
That said, some of you still do not understand how the tax credit works. Here's a short video to explain it in very clear fashion:
Sullivan & Cromwell's Cohen Says the Abolition Of Glass/Steagall Was Not Responsible For Current Economic Crisis
Cohen lays most of the blame for the current Economic Crisis on "unregulated" Mortgage Bankers and Mortgage Brokers.
He says "If we don't get it (regulatory oversight of Mortgage Bankers and Mortgage Brokers)now, we are just sowing the seeds for a financial crisis where we won't come out of it."
He says "If we don't get it (regulatory oversight of Mortgage Bankers and Mortgage Brokers)now, we are just sowing the seeds for a financial crisis where we won't come out of it."
An Uplifiting Story About A Blind Boy Who Uses Sonar To See
The following is not the usual business/economic post you are used to seeing here on the Watchworld.
What you are about to view is an uplifting story about an extraordinary boy who lost his eyes to cancer at a very young age. Through the help and love of his family, especially his mother, he learned to see in way no other human has ever seen: with sonar. And with the help of other blind people who use echo location, this young man has learned from the blind leading the blind.
I'm placing this video here tonight knowing that there are Americans who are at their wits' end with mounting debt, loss of jobs, foreclosed homes, repoed cars, and full of despair. This video is for them. It might make some forlorn, hopeless person see some light at the end of the dark tunnel they've been traveling through for too long, just as this boy in this video learned to see things in a new way and learned to work with all the tools at his disposal, despite being blind.
This story about Ben Underwood is in five parts. If first aired on the BBC show "Extraordinary People".
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
What you are about to view is an uplifting story about an extraordinary boy who lost his eyes to cancer at a very young age. Through the help and love of his family, especially his mother, he learned to see in way no other human has ever seen: with sonar. And with the help of other blind people who use echo location, this young man has learned from the blind leading the blind.
I'm placing this video here tonight knowing that there are Americans who are at their wits' end with mounting debt, loss of jobs, foreclosed homes, repoed cars, and full of despair. This video is for them. It might make some forlorn, hopeless person see some light at the end of the dark tunnel they've been traveling through for too long, just as this boy in this video learned to see things in a new way and learned to work with all the tools at his disposal, despite being blind.
This story about Ben Underwood is in five parts. If first aired on the BBC show "Extraordinary People".
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
08 November 2009
Professor Steve Keen from Australia on Debt and Economy asks, "How Do We Pay For All This?" 3 Parts
An oustanding talk on Minksy vs. Friedman, debt creation, the danger of securitized loans, debt to GDP levels, money creation, and more. Highly recommended to all deflationists and inflationists.
Professor Keen says we may have delayed the Day of Reckoning, but the danger of further damage to the World Economy is out there because we have not addressed the cause of the crisis: DEBT.
p.s. A reminder that you can buttons on the bottom of the youtube player for Hi-def and an expanded screen (to fill your computer screen) so that you may see Professor Keen's charts and graphs more clearly.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Professor Keen says we may have delayed the Day of Reckoning, but the danger of further damage to the World Economy is out there because we have not addressed the cause of the crisis: DEBT.
p.s. A reminder that you can buttons on the bottom of the youtube player for Hi-def and an expanded screen (to fill your computer screen) so that you may see Professor Keen's charts and graphs more clearly.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
07 November 2009
Senator Bernie Saunders (I-VT) Says We Should Break Up The Big Banks
The Rush Limbaugh's of the world constantly try to denigrate Bernie Saunders as a "Socialist", "anti-American", etc. The labels cannot harm this man with a conscience. Here Saunders explains why most Americans should support the breakup of the Big Banks which are Too Big To Fail.
06 November 2009
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos: What We've Learned From The Crisis
Short seller Jim Chanos, of Kynikos Associates, was one of the first to predict the financial meltdown. Jill Schlesinger visits his office to ask him what we have (and haven't) learned.
05 November 2009
Most Clueless Investment Advice For This Year
Sometimes you stumble upon a newly posted youtube video and you are so taken aback by it, you wonder, is the video poster chopping Drano crystals on the toilet tank top and snorting lines?
If you are a contrarian investor, you will want to short the FIRE Economy here and now for the next downleg, based on this video.
Get ready to laugh out loud at the punchline/sage investment advice at the end of this video. (No cheating by jumping ahead, the malarky set up is priceless, mis-spellings and all. You got to see it to believe it.)
"More Cowbell!"
If you are a contrarian investor, you will want to short the FIRE Economy here and now for the next downleg, based on this video.
Get ready to laugh out loud at the punchline/sage investment advice at the end of this video. (No cheating by jumping ahead, the malarky set up is priceless, mis-spellings and all. You got to see it to believe it.)
"More Cowbell!"
Dylan Ratigan: The Magic Money Machine Backing Wall Street Casinos Is Out Of Control; The 4 Things Needed To Fix Banking In The USA
More and more I'm liking this guy, Dylan Ratigan, for taking on the greedheads on Wall Street.
In this video, he rants against corporate risk taking which is backed by our government. He tells us why our children's children's children will be paying for the fraudulent Capitalism backed by our Federal Government. And then he explains how he would fix banking in the USA from this point forward with four simple steps:
1. Inject transparency, primarily to bring almost $600 trillion of crooked insurance scams to the forefront. Force almost all swaps onto exchanges, not just the 20% as current proposed reform does.
2. Demand capital to back Wall Street's gambling.
3. Enact a tax-code to encourage long-term investment and discourage short-term profit. Fortunes should not be made in minutes but over years through the creation of value to society.
4. Break up the Too Big To Fail banking institutions. Start with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. Right Now.
In this video, he rants against corporate risk taking which is backed by our government. He tells us why our children's children's children will be paying for the fraudulent Capitalism backed by our Federal Government. And then he explains how he would fix banking in the USA from this point forward with four simple steps:
1. Inject transparency, primarily to bring almost $600 trillion of crooked insurance scams to the forefront. Force almost all swaps onto exchanges, not just the 20% as current proposed reform does.
2. Demand capital to back Wall Street's gambling.
3. Enact a tax-code to encourage long-term investment and discourage short-term profit. Fortunes should not be made in minutes but over years through the creation of value to society.
4. Break up the Too Big To Fail banking institutions. Start with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. Right Now.
04 November 2009
The Coming Crash In Commercial Real Estate
Be sure to read the words entered into the Congressional Record of 1891 by the American Banker's Association starting at 2:53 in this video:
ForexTV: The Recession Is Not Over
Chartists and followers of government induced borrowing will easily understand why it is easy to believe this Great Recession is not over:
03 November 2009
29 October 2009
Rock Trueblood on Hiatus until Fantasy Fest Is Over . . .
http://www.cowboybillskw.com/
and the blog will give you a better idea if you cannot surf well . . .
http://www.cowboybillskw.blogspot.com/
and the blog will give you a better idea if you cannot surf well . . .
http://www.cowboybillskw.blogspot.com/
28 October 2009
27 October 2009
The Stench of Truth 232 Rant
Tenebroust asks, "Why not call the USA Goldman Sachs Land?"
WARNING! Profanity laced rant dead ahead.
WARNING! Profanity laced rant dead ahead.
26 October 2009
21 October 2009
20 October 2009
16 October 2009
15 October 2009
14 October 2009
13 October 2009
08 October 2009
17 September 2009
16 September 2009
15 September 2009
14 September 2009
15 August 2009
Jon Stewart Outs Glenn Beck's Rapidly Changed Opinion On American Healthcare
Leave it to the Daily Show to yet again do the work of the moribund Mainstream Media. Here we will see comedian Jon Stewart simply take video clips of Glenn Beck after his operation in January 2008 and compare what he was saying then to what he is saying today.
It makes the cynic in me wonder how many Health Insurance dollars are going to Beck's Show today in the form of advertising and positive mentions on his newscasts?
It makes the cynic in me wonder how many Health Insurance dollars are going to Beck's Show today in the form of advertising and positive mentions on his newscasts?
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| ||||
12 August 2009
86% of Canadians Support/Want to Keep Their Current Public Healthcare
You know how the mouthpieces for giant American consortiums continue to scare Americans by telling us how often Canadians are not happy with their healthcare? These shills give us a story here and there of some Canadian who comes across the border to get the healthcare they want or need. Well, a recent poll of 1,001 Canadian citizens is putting the fear mongering spinmeisters's lies to rest.
In an article just released this morning, "Public health care scores big in poll as MDs study privatization", over 86% of Canadians interviewed want to keep their healthcare just the way it is, thank-you very much Privatization forces trying to change to an American system of healthcare.
Here are the important paragraphs from the Toronto Star article this morning:
Days before a Canadian Medical Association meeting expected to be dominated by talk of privatized health care, a poll indicates overwhelming support in this country for keeping medicare public.
The poll by Nanos Research, to be released today, found 86.2 per cent of the 1,001 people surveyed supported or strongly supported "public solutions to make our public health care stronger."
"There is compelling evidence that Canadians across all demographics would prefer a public over a for-profit health-care system," Nik Nanos of Nanos Research said of the poll, commissioned by the Canadian Healthcare Coalition.
Support was strongest in Quebec, at 87.6 per cent and lowest in Ontario at 84.1 per cent.
P. S. As the article also stated, "The poll, conducted between April 25 and May 3, is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
11 August 2009
10 August 2009
Greedy, Corrupt Healthcare Insurance Companies Deny Americans Their Payment Claims
At the end of this video, pay attention to the scrolling list of "fines" assessed against United Healthcare for denying Americans claims against the Insurer.
05 August 2009
Away from the desk for next 3 weeks
To my friends and readers:
This past Sunday we put money down on a new rental somewhere up the Middle Keys. It's a great house on a big hunk of land. One of our neighbors has stables and horses. The land we're on abuts a Nature Preserve.
We are very fortunate to find something like this in the Keys.
Needless to say, we're packing. I won't have time to post for the remainder of August. More later.
Rock
04 August 2009
Daily Show's John Oliver Takes On Timothy Geithner's Inability To Sell His Home
Hilarious look at Geithner's real home. John Oliver even tries to auction it off. And wait until the end when he pronounces Oliver's bathroom as "ghastly" and shows a photo of it to Robert Shiller:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| ||||
03 August 2009
Rock's Top Tip for Monday - August 3, 2009
Don't forget the always growing list of news headlines, be they business, economic, sports, military, world, etc., news at the always updating news site:
www.a1anews.com
Some of the headlines printing this morning over there:
Call to boycott products advertised on Glenn Beck's show
Will Obama Raise Taxes on Middle Class?
Microsoft Word, RIP: 1983 - 2009
American with cold misses ill-fated hike into Iran
Is Health Care Talk Toxic for Cable TV?
The Big Picture Blog: Dive Right In!
Metals, Oil, Stocks Advance as Chinese Manufacturing Expands
Rio flight diverted to Miami as 26 people injured from flight turbulence, 4 seriously
Post-Apocalyptic movies are all the rage as Hollywood destroys the world
Feds Want Apple and AT&T to Explain Google Voice Rejection
Tweeting, texting render avid users 'present yet absent'
Jobless NYC woman sues college for $70K in tuition
Housing Bottom? No, the Mother of All Head Fakes
Housing begins to reverse 3-year recession in every US region, but 2nd half looks rocky
www.a1anews.com
www.a1anews.com
Some of the headlines printing this morning over there:
Call to boycott products advertised on Glenn Beck's show
Will Obama Raise Taxes on Middle Class?
Microsoft Word, RIP: 1983 - 2009
American with cold misses ill-fated hike into Iran
Is Health Care Talk Toxic for Cable TV?
The Big Picture Blog: Dive Right In!
Metals, Oil, Stocks Advance as Chinese Manufacturing Expands
Rio flight diverted to Miami as 26 people injured from flight turbulence, 4 seriously
Post-Apocalyptic movies are all the rage as Hollywood destroys the world
Feds Want Apple and AT&T to Explain Google Voice Rejection
Tweeting, texting render avid users 'present yet absent'
Jobless NYC woman sues college for $70K in tuition
Housing Bottom? No, the Mother of All Head Fakes
Housing begins to reverse 3-year recession in every US region, but 2nd half looks rocky
www.a1anews.com
01 August 2009
Update On A Condo Using the O' Boyle's "Fast Dutch Auction" and News About Price Changes In The Past 2 Months
A few days ago, I laid a post here titled, "3 Key West Home Sellers Use The "Sally O' Boyle" Method To Try and Move Their Homes".
Hal is talking about a price that is not artificially propped up by appraiser fraud, loan fraud, government fraud, NAR manipulation of the MLS, government offices reporting "false data",etc.
The real market will tell all sellers who are still in denial what buyers will bear in these times of double digit unemployment, mushrooming foreclosures, tighter lending, new appraiser rules, growing "stealth inventory" on insolvent banks books, and so on.
The market does not lie. Government statistics lie. The NAR lies. Vested interests in the FIRE Economy lie. All this fraudulent interference artificially props up markets, but the market always wins out over time because of the moral hazards introduced and the unintended consequences of those moral hazards restore equilibrium by chopping off more heads the next go round of bubbles.
To get back to sanity, people are saving more than ever in the past decade and they are beginning to actually live below their means. And credit is tight right now, real tight, and it's going to get tighter. (I'll explain why credit from lenders is about to evaporate for many banks and how it's going to further affect housing later this coming weekend.)
That said, Hal (and I infer his wife Sally thinks the same way) and I and many an observer of Key West and Florida Keys Real Estate believe the "bottom" is not here.
You think the powers who control MLS data would list every price change of every house for "browsers" on all their online MLS search data bases? Dream on. Hell no, these are the same "advisors" who flogged people to buy homes during the maniacal buying panic of the last three years of the Housing Bubble. These people are trying to save some face. Another bad down year in Real Estate and we'll halve the Realtor Corps again in the Keys. The local NAR can't have that.
That's why I started my own Excel spreadsheet: to help citizens understand why housing is still too expensive and non-affordable. And by showing incremental price changes and the amount of price changes, tire kicking buyers can get the idea it makes way more sense to rent now and save money. I want to help people stay out a market which has not fully let out all its excess.
What I want to do now is revisit the first of my examples from my post a few days ago. The exact words will be highlighted in violet. And then I'll add this week's price change:
Here are the original words I wrote for this Santa Clara condo unit . . .
There are over a dozen comments on it already, and what really pleased me is Hal O' Boyle, husband of Sally O' Boyle, wrote a response in Key West the Newspaper also. (Click here to read Hal's online version in KWTN. Hal's piece is titled "Free OFMP, Get Yours Now")
Anyway, I finally have a name for what I called "The Sally O' Boyle" Method. This is the way to quickly develop interested buyers to call you about a property you are trying to sell. Hal calls it a "Fast Dutch Auction" and he gave props to local Real Estate muse, Curtis H. Wild, who drummed a great maxim into both Hal's and Sally's heads when they were learning Real Estate. That saying is,
"There is a price at which
that house will sell today"
Is there ever! And as Hal aptly explains in his column, "...that price, by definition, is the market price."Hal is talking about a price that is not artificially propped up by appraiser fraud, loan fraud, government fraud, NAR manipulation of the MLS, government offices reporting "false data",etc.
The real market will tell all sellers who are still in denial what buyers will bear in these times of double digit unemployment, mushrooming foreclosures, tighter lending, new appraiser rules, growing "stealth inventory" on insolvent banks books, and so on.
The market does not lie. Government statistics lie. The NAR lies. Vested interests in the FIRE Economy lie. All this fraudulent interference artificially props up markets, but the market always wins out over time because of the moral hazards introduced and the unintended consequences of those moral hazards restore equilibrium by chopping off more heads the next go round of bubbles.
To get back to sanity, people are saving more than ever in the past decade and they are beginning to actually live below their means. And credit is tight right now, real tight, and it's going to get tighter. (I'll explain why credit from lenders is about to evaporate for many banks and how it's going to further affect housing later this coming weekend.)
That said, Hal (and I infer his wife Sally thinks the same way) and I and many an observer of Key West and Florida Keys Real Estate believe the "bottom" is not here.
If A Bottom Were Here, Would We Not Be Seeing A Rise On Most Price Changes For Real Estate?
Let me give you a stat right off the top of my Excel spreadsheet, and this is an eye-opening stat which is growing daily to the minus side, or devaluation side:Out of 160 price changes on Lower Keys properties since the first week of June when I started my Excel Spreadsheet, only 3 of them were increases in price from the original listing price. The other 157 Price Changes were decreases in price from the original listing price!
And then there is all this "stealth inventory" on developers's and banks's books still being carried at "mark to fantasy" pricing which isn't factored into the hidden deleveraging by the high rollers. Nor does this stealth inventory show on the MLS. Yet every once in a while, a developer of lender has to offload one unit at what they consider and insane price, but a price which is really closer to what the market will bear at this time.
(There's a developer out here with a row of ultra-expensive condos which have not been lived in since 2005 when they were built. A friend of mine told me the developer recently filed for Chapter 11. His plan to come out of bankruptcy was to sell one of these units at a time at a devalued price and then take the money from the sale to keep current on his taxes, insurance, and carrying costs. The judge threw the filing out of the court telling the developer, "That ain't no plan. You're simply living on hope. File for Chapter 7." My bet is these condos will eventually auction off for less than what they cost the developer to build.)
When you got everybody in the FIRE Economy and the US Government using every trick in the book to keep prices artificially propped up, while Price Change after Price Change shows "lowering" of prices from the "listing price", well, you can say with assurance, housing has not bottomed in the Keys.
More proof that sellers are now in the panic mode
As Hal points out, I am noticing more people using the "Fast Dutch Auction" method just by observing my own Excel spreadsheet which is now 2 months old. (I haven't missed a day in two months of painstakingly typing in all the data.) The picture developing from my data not shared with buyers by the local NAR is getting oh so sharp and clear. And what I see is direct manipulation of the data by FIRE Economy teat suckers wanting to reinflate the Bubble.
You think the powers who control MLS data would list every price change of every house for "browsers" on all their online MLS search data bases? Dream on. Hell no, these are the same "advisors" who flogged people to buy homes during the maniacal buying panic of the last three years of the Housing Bubble. These people are trying to save some face. Another bad down year in Real Estate and we'll halve the Realtor Corps again in the Keys. The local NAR can't have that.
That's why I started my own Excel spreadsheet: to help citizens understand why housing is still too expensive and non-affordable. And by showing incremental price changes and the amount of price changes, tire kicking buyers can get the idea it makes way more sense to rent now and save money. I want to help people stay out a market which has not fully let out all its excess.
I'm not saying there aren't any deals out there. I am saying, however, the market for more than 95% of properties has a long way to go before reaching bottom
That said, I found one new Fast Dutch Auction type of deal today. I'll post about it next week.What I want to do now is revisit the first of my examples from my post a few days ago. The exact words will be highlighted in violet. And then I'll add this week's price change:
Here are the original words I wrote for this Santa Clara condo unit . . .
Example 1
In our first example, a condo seller has been dropping his/her price by $5,000 every week. Here's the scoop:
MLS #111141
This is a 2 Br/1 Ba Santa Clara unit.
Listed 1st week of July, 2009 for $179,000
Price Change 7/9/09: $174,000
Price Change 7/15/09: $169,000
Price Change 7/21/09: $164,000
Price Change 7/27/09: $159,000
And by the way, the owner of this reverse auction unit paid $162,500 for it on 5/1/02 . . . so the seller is trying to sell at a lower price than what they paid for it seven years ago. We'll keep our eye on this one and see if it falls another $5,000 next week.
I printed all that just a few days ago on 28 July 09.
Here's the latest update, and as you can see, the seller did not even wait six days this time to make his/her next Price Change. Now the change has come only three days later:
Price Change 7/30/09: $154,000
This is a prime example of the O'Boyle's "Fast Dutch Auction". And trust me, I'm seeing this type of selling develop with high end stuff in the millions of dollars right here and now, not just low priced condos.
I see no bottom at this time. I don't forsee it next year. We're going to a place we've never been before in Real Estate, except for maybe the Florida Real Estate Crash of 1928. If you think prices can go no lower, take a chill pill. What's the rush to buy when 157 reductions are showing in the past two months with only 3 higher price changes in that same time. Oh by the way, 2 of those 3 price increases were for brand new "Affordable Housing" up on Stock Island. I kid you not.
Is this the crazy world of Arthur Brown ("Fire") or what?
Caveat Emptor,
Rock
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