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02 March 2010
Retail Woes Continue, Shopping Malls Fill With Vacancies
This past Sunday, Mish published a piece titled "Retail Sales Rise: Where? Let's Take a Look; Expect Nothing Less Than Panic".
Mish had a reader of his ask him:
Mish had a reader of his ask him:
"What puzzles me is that with such large numbers of people without jobs or adequate jobs, how can retail sales continue to hold their own? If people still had their house ATM or were increasing their credit card debt, I could see how they could keep spending at pre-recession levels. But people are paying down debt, not increasing it. Something just doesn't jibe IMO. "
"With the current job situation, I would expect to see retail sales at something like 90% of the bubble years sales. Do you have any retail sales data that verifies the stress in the employment situation? "
Mish started his response by saying,
. . . and then Mish does an excellent job of parsing sales tax figures from New York, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia . . . all of which shows retail isn't rebounding, but continuing to crater.
I urge all readers and viewers of this blog to read this great piece by Mish so you will understand what is really going to on at retail. You should also think about what the implications are for commercial Real Estate in 2010 and going forward.
Meanwhile, if any of you have a dying mall near you, take some video, and we'll spotlight it here on the Watchworld. Here's one from "uspimpclub" I found on youtube tonight, location of mall is unknown, but it looks like any dying mall in Anywhere, USA which was clobbered by the Housing Crash.
"Retail sales are not what they seem."
"I have written about this before but not enough. The published numbers are based on "same store sales". Think about all the companies that have gone bankrupt. Take Circuit City for an example. Gone. The doors are closed. Some of those shoppers went to Best Buy where same store sales rose. "
"Also remember that Best Buy and many other chains closed weak stores. The result: same store sales went up again."
"Government methodology for reporting retail sales is based on sampling stores in existence. It does not factor in stores not in existence but recently were. Nor does it handle closed stores when the chain is still doing business."
"Government reporting of retail sales is fatally flawed. "
"To understand what is going on, all one has to look at actual tax data. Heard any rosy numbers from states about sales tax collections?"
"Let's take a look at some real numbers."
. . . and then Mish does an excellent job of parsing sales tax figures from New York, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia . . . all of which shows retail isn't rebounding, but continuing to crater.
I urge all readers and viewers of this blog to read this great piece by Mish so you will understand what is really going to on at retail. You should also think about what the implications are for commercial Real Estate in 2010 and going forward.
Meanwhile, if any of you have a dying mall near you, take some video, and we'll spotlight it here on the Watchworld. Here's one from "uspimpclub" I found on youtube tonight, location of mall is unknown, but it looks like any dying mall in Anywhere, USA which was clobbered by the Housing Crash.
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