Keith Olbermann Sums Up the Past 8 Years in 8 Minutes

As I was building the headline news for www.a1anews.com morning, I came across a video which sums up nicely what the past 8 years of kleptocracy, oligarchy and plutocracy have brought the USA.

Olbermann covers so much ground in 8 minutes that you might want to watch certain sections 3 or 4 times to remind you "Never again".

Room Rates In Season Are Falling Like Key West Housing Prices and Rents

So here we are, tourist season a little more than 3 weeks old, and on my nightly runs into town, I always check the hotels on A1A, the Casa Marina area, the new motels and hotels and condotels on Simonton, and all the guest houses on Upper Duval.

So far during this season vacancies are everywhere.

Room rates have dropped dramatically. Deals abound all over the island. And I'm talking deals for which you do not need AARP cards, airline points, etc., to get a place for less than $200 per night.

Just last year, for instance, the Santa Maria condos were running $390 on weeknights and $440 and higher on weekends.

The Courtyard of the Santa Maria Luxury Condos

Today you can go online and find these same rooms vacillating anywhere from $290 (the lowest I've seen) to $340 . . . and these are weekend rates during Season.

But why take my word for it?

I found several room rate shopping bot (kayak.com, onetime.com, etc.) which compare prices from the likes of travelocity, orbitz, hotels.com, etc. It takes the room rates quoted by all these sites and show you the three best quotes from all the sites you choose to compare.

So, to show you how this works, I went to the front page for www.onetime.com

I then clicked on the tab labeled "Hotels"

When the Hotels page opened, I then checkmarked every single deal provider (including the one for kayak.com . . . which is a shopper bot similar to onetime.com).

After I checkmarked every deal provider, I then plugged in the following parameters for the test:

2 people, 1 room, staying form Jan.29 through Jan.31 of 2009. That would be Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights, the nights when rates are normally highest during the week.

Now before I show you the results, keep in mind that deal providers all work against one another to show the best rates available. On any given night, if a hotel, motel or guest house has many vacancies, the deals they will offer will show lower, and lower and lower pricing on these deal provider websites such as hotels.com, priceline.com, etc. (Priceline offers set rates and an area where you can also "offer" the hotels a cheaper bid than what they are showing . . . it's simply fabulous and I'll cover this more in a minute.)

One more thing to point out: since I've begun monitoring these deal providers, I have witnessed room rates fluctuate during a 7 day period. For instance, as I saw the Santa Maria parking lot fill up with cars this week, I watched the rates on these deal providers creep slowly upward. Rooms which were as low as $240, were suddenly up to $290, $300, and so on.

That said, the further you book in advance, the better your deals might be as this Recession worsens . . . especially when travelers are worried about layoffs (see Pink Slip Friday from A1A News this past Friday) rising, foreclosures at an all time, the Housing ATM shut down, millions of homeowners upside down on their loans, and debt to home equity at an all time high.

Consumers are tapped out. Vacations are discretionary income purchases, with money going to the necessities of life instead of frivolities like vacations, satellite radio, full blown cable packages, etc. (Car and boat companies are selling far fewer cars as repossesions of both are at an all time high.)

Hence, Las Vegas, Key West, California (now losing more residents than people moving into the state) and other vacation hubs are seeing one business after another close for good.

Thus, as fewer vacationers with money come to Key West, hotels, motels and some guest houses are vying against one another by lowering bids for their rooms on these online deal brokerage websites.

Okay, it's time for us to look over the results of this Sunday's (Jan. 18, 2009) data of best deals for the dates Jan. 29 - Jan. 30, 2009 . . . Thursday through Saturday nights during Season, one room for two people.

I think Northerners will be surprised by these results:

Lowest priced motels per night: El Rancho at $99, Days Inn at $100,

Travelodge Suites and Holiday Inn $127

Budget, Radisson, Comfort Inn and the Palms: $130 to $140

Southernmost Hotel: $144

That's nine places under the $150 per weekend night IN SEASON . . .

The highest price place: Parrot Key next to the Walgreens on North Roosevelt at $449 a night.

Noticeably absent in the price wars are the majority of guest houses in Key West. You'll only see "contact hotel directly" printed under each of their names.

Let's check to see where those Santa Maria luxury condotel rooms are today (remember, I said they've come down from $390 to $440 and higher last year). Hmmm, just a few days ago, I found several rooms for rent at $290. Today, something called reservetravel.com will get you the rooms at $314 per night, whereas Orbitz and cheaptickets are quoting $349 per night.

Which goes to show you, shop around, the deals abound.

Caveat emptor,

Rock Trueblood



p.s. If you are from out of town, shop this kayak.com or any other deal bot for hotels websites. Once you got the low rates for a place, don't commit yet.

Go online to priceline.com, pick out the star level rating of where you want to stay (in this example I clicked 3 stars and offered $110 a night. You'd be surprised at how many times a hotel with $250 rooms is sweating vacant rooms and they'll do anything to fill them up . . . just as airlines do . . . by selling the rooms at half-price or more.

That said, the cold front is breaking, the sun is shining, and the town is looking to show you a good time. Come on down.

Five Part Jim Rogers Interview Titled "America is Collapsing" Now Put Together in One Sequential Order

This past November, Jim Rogers was interviewed for over 35 to 40 minutes.

I only found part 1 of this interview by accident and although the interview took place this past November, about 7 weeks ago, I posted part 1 directly on my news website A1A News. (See Monday January 12, 2009)

This morning, I just found all five parts of the whole interview on youtube. I've now put them together in sequential order for us to enjoy and to chronicle for future use as the years go by.

Just watch part 1 of 5 and I guarantee (despite the sycophantic interviewer, Mary) you will want to watch all 5 parts.

In part one, Jim lets go with some great points such as:

• The Citicorp bailout announced in November was good for Citicorp, not for 300 million Americans

• The bailout is taking money from the competent to give to the incompetent, making the whole financial system weaker

• Bailout money is still going to bonuses and Masseratis

• Largest creditor nations in the world are now Asian, money power has shifted East

• The US deficit has tripled under unelected people in charge of the bailouts

• We must allow incompetent people and corporations to fail. Had Greenspan allowed LTCM to fail in the 80s, Lehman and Bear Stearns would not be dead today as their incompetent people would have been fired for LTCM associated losses in the 80s

• Alan Greenspan is the man most responsible for the Global Financial Crisis of today. In the 90s, Greenspan went to Japan and lectured the Japanese against bailouts of their industries and banks which overextended. On top of that, Greenspan was a failure in the private sector. Every time he failed in the private sector, he rotated back into a job in DC . . . a town where failures are not held accountable.

• Paulson does not take phone calls from teachers in Iowa or farmers in Texas. He takes phone calls from Wall Street. Paulson has been wrong for 100 straight weeks. Bernanke has been wrong for 200 straight weeks. So why does anyone in power listen to Paulson or Bernanke?

• Einstein defines insanity as doing something wrong over and over and over again, expecting new results. Then Jim reminds us that Obama has hired many of the brains behind the current mess in financial markets.

And that was just a few of the bon mots in part 1. The other four parts are just as full with Jim's observations and thoughts. I believe we can all benefit by watching this enlightening and intelligent man, Jim Rogers, as he says things which few politicians, pundits or Economists are willing to say in these Hard Times which Jim feels will become worse.

I hope you find the five video clips educational and I trust they will prod you to think about how to prepare for a future with diminished expectations and returns.

Carpe diem,

Rock Trueblood
Key West



Part 1 of 5



Part 2 of 5



Part 3 of 5



Part 4 of 5



Part 5 of 5

Key West Rents Drop Along With Housing Prices

In these deflationary times where housing prices continue to fall despite the perpetual assurance of Key West's NAR that Key West Homes "usually" double in prices "every 10 years" (Realtors were saying Key West Real Estate would double ever 3 to 5 years during the insanity of the Housing Bubble) I think it is interesting the NAR Kool-Aid drinkers are not paying attention to falling rents all over our island when they try to sell investment properties to out of towners.

Examples of Falling Rents in Key West

Last June, we (my girlfriend, Sluggo my cat and I) moved from an $1800 a month 1 BR, 1 BA cottage in a quiet 3 cottage compound because my landlord was being foreclosed upon. He originally had the place on the market for $3,900,000 and recently the bank sold the place for $1,200,000. I bolted after reading the 75 page court order "served" to me which told me my landlord had not paid his mortgage on the whole place for 7 months straight (December 2007 through June 2008).

My neighbors in the other two houses stayed behind. The new owner of this compound was "willing" to continue charging my neighbors directly next to me "only" $1600 for their smaller 1 BR 1 BA cottage, but they, like us, realized better deals all over town were sprouting like mushrooms in a cow pasture after a slight Spring rain. The moved to a newly renovated apartment, bigger in size than the cottage they vacated, for only $1400 a month over by the Key West Cemetery. Still, they only have 1 Bedroom and 1 Bath, but they, like us, got more space and better rent by moving.

Speaking of us, we left our $1800 a month rent behind for a 2 BR 2 BA condo at Las Salinas at the North end of the island. We're up on the 3rd floor. The guys who lived here before us just moved into an "Affordable Housing" deal up on Stock Island which we too had looked over and passed on. (At a later date I will cover why I do not think the affordable housing on Stock Island is any great deal . . . especially when housing in downtown Key West is beginning to break the $200,000 threshold.)

Anyway, this condo has two bedrooms, two baths, one living room and a kitchen. We bought our own stackable washer/dryer combo. The place came with a dishwasher. Free cable comes with the lower rent of only $1600.

Now I no longer walk to work. But I do enjoy the nightly motorcycle ride, 2 miles of which goes right along A1A, the road Jimmy Buffet once named an album after and which is now part of the namesake of my news blog (http://www.a1anews.com/).

The ride into work prepares me by calming me with side glances at the ocean, moonlight, sunsets, nightbirds and seagulls flying into the sun, depending on what time I go in. Sometimes, on the ride home at 4 AM, I pull over and stand at the seawall and stargaze. So the tradeoff is this: I no longer can walk to work in 5 minutes time. I spend about $10 to $20 a month on gas to get to and from work. And I sometimes get wet when it rains, but really, I don't mind.

That said, we are saving more money by not having full blown satellite TV as we have free cable. We pay less rent. Our electric bill is much less as we have a better insulated place to live. And we live on the third floor of a very well kept condo building (maintenance at Las Salinas is excellent).

Still, although we love our new landlord, we've noticed several ads for same sized condos as ours for rent here at Las Salinas for only $1400. That's $200 cheaper than what we are paying now. So if we were to stay in this building, we'd move in a heartbeat at the end of our lease.

Making this even more interesting is one classified for a Las Salinas 2 BR, 2 BA for the $1400 rent and the landlord added, "And I'll take $50 off your rent every time you pay on time."

So, rent out here has just broken the $1400 level for a 2 BA, 2 BR.

By moving into a deal down the hall with the above rent, we'd be saving $250 a month or $3,000 a year which we could save for one of our Roth IRAs.

And by the way, one condo on my hall has been vacant now for over a year with no renter at $1500 for a 2 BR and 2 BA. Look at what the owner of that condo has lost $1500 X 12 = $18,000 out of pocket. Had he dropped his rent by just $100 twelve months ago, that place would have someone like me in their paying rent.

Hence, landlords must drop their rents to keep their places rented out. The problem is too many landlords still in the grips of denial bought their rental properties at the market top and are still charging Bubble rents to help make their mortgage payments on their "investment". To which I ask, "What's better? Losing $1500 a month with a vacant property you must pay out of pocket for vs. losing maybe $200 to $300 monthly with it rented out at a cheaper price?

You think working class people are not paying attention to the panic shown in ads by landlords?


Another prime example of why it's never been a better time to rent in Key West

Recently, an apartment complex uptown on Duck Avenue fired its long time manager (she was outstanding, she used to advertise on the old WAIL 99.5 's Hoebee in the Afternoon Radio Show where I was Hoebee's producer and ad sales rep) and when the new owners took over last Summer, they started renovating every apartment in the complex.

During this upgrade (still going on), anytime a renter vacated an apartment, the new management and its maintenance team would rip out everything old and install new carpeting, new stainless steel appliances, and so on and so forth.

Interestingly enough, with all these new capital expenditures, you'd think these new apartments would command higher rents and maybe have a line of renters ready to enjoy finer surroundings? Well, it hasn't worked out that way.

You see, working class people such as bartenders, cab drivers, deejays, waitresses, clean up crews, etc., who make up the majority of renters out at this complex I'm referring to are making less money not more.

Case in point: Last week I took a cut in pay. I'm not crying about it as I realize I still have my shifts and my hours. I've watched staff members have their shifts and hours cut. I've watched owners take smaller salaries. I've watched us drop certain bands which charge above average rates. And my situation is the norm at businesses all up and down Duval Street: businesses are being forced to cut payroll and other expenditures. This is normal practice during Hard Times.

We're in a Tourist Recession, full blown, in Key West, and as I ride up and down Duval Street every single week, I see another business here, another business there, which has closed its doors forever.

That said, I ask you to think about my bar and multiply it by 100. Do the same with hotel workers whose hotels are not full occupancy like they used to be. Peruse the newspaper classifieds and look over the 10 to 25 job offerings where there used to be 100 or more.

Labor is losing its clout in Key West.

If you want a job, you will have to accept less. Fewer hours. Fewer shifts. Fewer tips. Less salary and hourly wage.

So . . . getting back to the above apartment complex I was mentioning with the new renovations going on . . . these guys have not only NOT raised their rents, they have thrown in a new incentive which tells you renters are not coming out of the woodwork to rent these updated showpiece apartments. . . one month's rent FREE!

Now I haven't called these folks, but I will. I want to find out how you qualify for one month's free rent. Do you only get it on the most expensive and biggest apartments? Or is the one month's rent FREE only good after you've paid your rent on time for 11 straight months? I do not know. But I can assure you this: apartments owned by corporations are not in the business of sprucing up the place during a Recession and giving away one month's rent FREE unless renters were fleeing the complex for cheaper rents or because they could no longer afford the rents charged by this complex.


Don't move here now without having a job lined up already and don't pay more for rent than you have to

Look, you may want to chuck your job and move to Key West. That's fine, as long as you can find work. But I'm telling you Northerners seeking the Margarittaville idle life, you might just become real idle, like as in homeless . . . not employed . . . especially during this bloody awful Tourist Recession we are suffering through.

The Post Office down here is being forced to cut 6 clerks. Government is cutting staff and running a deficit. Bars are half-full on weekends, hotels have vacancies on weekend and have dropped rates astronomically. (I'll cover falling room rates in another post this week.)

Key West is a great place to visit, right now, if you have cash. But you don't want to move here without having a job lined up.

But if you must, and you do move here, know that rents are down and falling. That's the good news.

The bad news is jobs are few, those that are out there offer fewer hours, tips are half of what they are, and certain sectors such as water sports companies and charter boats are not hiring anyone and haven't done so in months

Still, if you know the lay of this island and past rental histories, there has never been a better time to rent in Key West.

Sign of What's to Come: Just the 2nd Downtown Key West Home I've Seen Asking Less Than $200,000 since the 1990s!

Gary Thomas, one of my favorite honest Realtors in Key West (there are 4 or 5 I know) posted this comment on December 22, 2008 on his blog about the above house:

CLICK HERE for more photos and information on 725 Whitehead Street. Do not let the asking price of $280,000 dissuade you from considering this little property. It needs work and the owner has asked for all offers with a very quick closing. You may be surprised how inexpensive a redevelopment property can be. Make an offer NOW! It may get accepted.

Underneath Gary's short post I wrote in the comments section:

Gary,

I'd give them $100,000 for that house. Would they consider that offer?


Rock

And I felt a little embarrassed I hadn't called Gary to discuss the offer (I was serious) as I've been too busy with a blog, plus, my hours at work increased while I took a cut in pay during this Tourist Recession.

Regardless, Gary being the consummate gentleman he is responded in the same comments area:

I don't want to discuss what the price here. Call me today, Christmas Eve, 766-2642. I'm working.

Gary

Okay, folks, keep in mind the latest asking price for this prime location on Olivia Street was $280,000 just 16 days ago as Gary so duly noted on his blog.

Moments ago, I was scrolling through photos of the "price reductions" section of my very favorite Key West Real Estate website from Compass Realty and lo and behold I see our fixer upper on Olivia Street has a new listing price which has dropped faster than an anchor dumped over the side of one of our charter fishing boats.

Here's the latest update which took place just 15 days after Gary notified one and all we should make a offer to the seller as "it might get accepted":

MLS#:109293
Status:Active
Original Price:$300,000
Listing Price:$160,000
Price Per Sq. Ft.$167.36
Address:725 Whitehead St
Key/Island:Key West
Neighborhood:Old Town-N of Truman
Subdivision:Old Town - Unlisted
Mile Marker:0.0
Prop Type: Single Family
Days on Market:227
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 1.0
Square Ft. 956
Lot Sq. Ft. 2,075
Year Built: 1923
Taxes: $3,534 (subject to change)
Tax Year: 2007
Exemptions: Homestead
Price Change: 1/6/09

Any CASH offer will be considered. The family needs to sell this property FAST! Zoning allows for an office or business. Complete renovation is needed for this historic home with location and potential. Built in 1923 this home has over 900 sq.ft.of living space and sits on a 2075 sq Ft lot. No parking.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To which I add, after thinking it over, some wise words from a friend of mine who now owns a pub in England and who still owns a house on Thomas Street which he spent five years renovating and which still needs work: "Never again, Rocko! The next time I buy, I want a bloody problem free and hassle free house.

And I'm thinking now, "Great location, the neighborhood is one block away from my workplace, and I could use it as a business place. But do we have the time to renovate a place which is said to need "total" renovation?" I pass. But maybe some of you with money and time on your hands wanting a great Key West location might want to try a lowball $100,000 (or even less). Meanwhile, I'm saving money and watching listing prices go from one reduction to another. The bottom is not here. Good luck!

- Rock of A1A News

http://www.a1anews.com/

A1A News Now Offers Video Feeds With News Links

Still trying to get back here for commentary, but the other blog, is taking up a lot of time as I add more features.

Just added my first video links today.

We're getting close to the new formatted page which will have its own .com and .net address.

For now, please continue to visit (click and bookmark):


www.a1anews.blogspot.com


Thanks to all,

Rock Trueblood